This single number collapses individual trials into one answer: across every combination of window type (9 types — from a 2-hour weekday slot to a full-week rental) and lead time (1, 3, 7, 14, and 30 days), what fraction of the time was at least one aircraft of the selected type free somewhere in the schedule during the lead window?
A trial is scored available if, on any of the L days before the window started, the schedule (as it was visible at midnight that day) showed at least one matching aircraft unbooked for the full window. A trial is scored not available if no such day existed. Trials near the start of the data range — where the full lead period pre-dates our records — are excluded (N/A).
Use the aircraft type filter above to restrict to a specific type, or the heatmap and drill-down sections below to break this number out by window and lead time.
For each occurrence of a window type and each lead time L, the simulation checks every day
from T−L through T−1 (the day before the flight starts).
A window is counted as available if at least one aircraft of the selected type(s) was free
on any of those days — modelling a member with availability notifications who monitors
the schedule throughout the booking window. Cancellations that occur after the flight start time
do not count.
Each day in the lead window is sampled once, at midnight (00:00:00) at the start of that day. This is a snapshot of the schedule as it stood at the beginning of each calendar day — intra-day changes (e.g. a booking made at 9am and cancelled at 3pm on the same day) are not captured; only the state at midnight is used. This means availability is conservative: a window that opened and closed within a single day would not be counted.
Visibility rule: a reservation R is visible (and blocking) at check-time T iff
Made(R) ≤ T AND (Canceled(R) is empty OR T < Canceled(R)).
Maintenance rows are treated as ordinary blocking reservations.
Tue 6pm – 8pm: Tuesday 18:00–20:00 (2 h).
Thu 9am – 11am: Thursday 09:00–11:00 (2 h).
Sat 10am – 12pm: Saturday 10:00–12:00 (2 h).
Sun 10am – 4pm: Sunday 10:00–16:00 (6 h).
Mon 8am – Fri 5pm: Monday 08:00 to Friday 17:00 (105 h).
Fri 5pm – Sun 7pm: Friday 17:00 to Sunday 19:00 (50 h).
Sat 8am – next Sat 8pm: Saturday 08:00 to the following Saturday 20:00 (180 h / ~7.5 days).
Sat 8am – 7pm (flex 3h): A 3-hour flight on Saturday with a flexible start time — any half-hour slot from 08:00 through 16:00 (latest end 19:00). Counted as available if any slot had a free aircraft during the lead window.
Sun 7am – 10pm (flex 6h): A 6-hour flight on Sunday with a flexible start time — any half-hour slot from 07:00 through 16:00 (latest end 22:00). Counted as available if any slot had a free aircraft during the lead window.
Selecting a type (or combination) redefines "available" as: at least one aircraft of the selected type(s) was free for the window. C182T has two aircraft (21200, 8050J); C172SP has one (6189Q); DA40 has one (949KC).
Lead time is measured as the time from first commitment to flight start. Because members
frequently cancel and immediately rebook (to adjust times, switch aircraft, etc.), the raw
Made timestamp of the final booking understates how far in advance a trip was
planned. To correct for this, the lead time chart traces back cancel→rebook chains: if a
cancellation by the same user falls within 5 minutes before a booking's Made
timestamp, that booking is treated as a continuation of the earlier one, and the process
repeats until no prior cancellation is found within the window. 35% of bookings were
corrected by at least one step in the chain.
This measures visible availability — what a member would have seen on the schedule at the time. It does not capture latent demand, weather, instructor availability, or currency requirements.